this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2023
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While I hate elon, this is a bad take. Ukraine and russia boarder each other. Most of the fighting has been over land. What good is a navy in such a battle? The most I could think of is shelling but AFAIK russia has been doing it's shelling with traditional artillery. Further, Russia's navy is a hot garbage mess. They only have 1 aircraft carrier and it's been scuttled for pretty much the entire war (and has constantly caught on fire while being scuttled).
The only wars that are hard to fight without a navy are wars where a significant portion of the warring nation and front-lines are near the water. That's not this war.
Not to say there aren't advantages to Ukraine sinking the russian navy. But rather, it's unlikely that "the war would have ended tomorrow if they did".
The russian navy can exert control and is a threat to the hundreds of kilometrrs of black sea cost as well as the ukrainian ports being absolutely crucial to the ukranian economy.
Also dictators like their fancy navy. Blowing it up would damage Putins image tremendously
No disagreement, it would be a major blow to russia. I just don't think it would have ended the war. The navy simply hasn't played a major role in this war.
They fire missiles from those ships. Also can prevent grain exports from Ukraine which has a major impact on the economic war.
Significant damage to the Black Sea fleet would make it clear to many in Russia that Putin is weak which makes a coup more likely. Continuing this war is not in Russia's best interests it's only in Putin's interests (admitting defeat also makes him look weak. A coup in Russia likely ends the war.
Certainly it's not something that would automatically end the war, but it significantly increases the probability of the war ending sooner. And there is significant strategic value to that fleet even if it's not directly engaged in combat.
the navy acts as mobile missile bases, they also allow Russia to move supplies by water, with there only being 2 land routes to most of the front, the ability to use shipping to bypass blockades, the sinking of the Russian fleet would also have allowed Ukrainians to more easily destroy the bridge between Russia and Crimea, this would make 80%+ of Russian positions in Ukraine untenable in terms of holding militarily, and since Putin can't afford to lose half his army in just a few months he would be forced to pull out and negotiate.