chapotraphouse

Okay, I didn’t know I was talking with someone who has family in China and who might even be living there now, so I'm sorry if my tone was less than polite. I've spent a lot of time writing this response so please feel free to correct anything I've written here.

Your own questions kind of bothered me last night and I spent some time looking into the issue of state capitalism. I did end up finding a brief note by Mao, where he describes China in 1953, but sounds like he's describing it in 2023. The idea of state capitalism goes back to Lenin and even Engels, who called it the final stage of capitalism. Basically, once the bourgeoisie is no longer in control of capitalism—capitalism having become a public rather than private affair, with the state taking control of public utilities and then entire industries—it becomes possible to build a classless society. The bourgeoisie no longer needs to exist, which means that the proletariat no longer needs to exist, since each is defined by the other. The issue that it seems Marx and Engels didn't consider was the possibility that socialism would begin outside the imperial core, one country at a time, rather than the imperial core turning socialist first. I'm not sure it's possible for socialism to happen so long as imperialism still exists. The question people keep asking is: is China socialist? When the real question may be: is the world socialist?

Right now the choice for China seems to be: allow the West to turn China into Iraq, or keep doing state capitalism. I suppose China might be allowed to turn into Japan, in the best-case scenario, where its development is frozen indefinitely, and huge amounts of China's taxes go toward propping up the American war machine. As far as I can tell, China is betting on the BRICS and the BRI (as well as technological development) freeing it from America's grip. I also looked into some liberal criticism of China yesterday and saw them complaining about how China's rate of economic growth is slowing down and how the real estate market there is in trouble, and when I saw that Evergrande owes hundreds of billions of dollars (some to China's banks, some to foreign investors), I did start to wonder what the plan is here. I'm confused also about how there is seemingly a lot of property speculation while 90% of Chinese people own their own homes. (To his credit, Xi did recently say that homes are for use, not speculation.)

I'm aware that things aren't perfect in China, and it does look to me like the bourgeoisie is superfluous. I also saw a critique by Richard Wolff, who basically said that China needs more democracy in the workplace. In talking with Chinese people, it sounds like workplaces there aren't too different in their basic setup from workplaces here in the USA, the difference being a stronger social safety net, a total lack of inflation, and the looming threat of the CPC over the boss's heads. So if China adopted Wolff's methods (which I think most of us would define as socialism), my guess is that workers would opt to work less, and to focus on satisfying immediate material needs rather than producing commodities for export (correct me if I'm wrong obviously). In the short run this would probably produce a great deal of happiness, but in the long run wouldn't it lead to weakening China? Fewer exports means less money coming in, which means you can't import things, and you can't keep up with Western technology or even Western ideology, which increases the possibility that the West will destroy you. The market, as terrible and inefficient as it is, does prod huge numbers of people into performing the admittedly unpleasant task of keeping up with the West and even, as seems to be the case now, surpassing it. Perhaps in the future it can be destroyed, but for the moment it might be necessary.

At the same time, China's rate of economic growth was also slowing down when Mao was getting older, I think during the stagflation crisis in the West that gave us neoliberalism. In China, Deng did Dengism to fix this problem. Now the rate of economic growth is slowing down again (even if China's economy is still growing roughly ten times faster than the USA's). There must be people in the CPC wondering if state capitalism has taken China as far as it can go. Once it reaches a certain level of development, dangerous boom-and-bust cycles appear to be inevitable.

My question is, what is China supposed to do? If you were in control, what would you do differently?

I also have some questions about China's covid response. Some British research firm recently published a report saying that when China abandoned zero covid, two million people there died. I looked into their methodology, and said that they found this number basically by extrapolating from Baidu searches, an Adrian Zenz-like approach. Does this number seem realistic? We've lost huge numbers of people in places like the USA and India, and during particularly bad periods it became quite difficult for these two countries to hide the bodies. I saw no footage from China—aside from some weird and very suspect tiktok videos (as well as private funerals)—showing what I saw from India or the USA. If there were two million excess deaths, where are the bodies?

I ask because I live in the USA but have been very close to moving to China for months now. My life is probably as good as it can be for someone living here, but I can't stand the liberalism any longer (even if I know that liberalism also exists in China). I have kids, and also just think that they would have safer, better lives there. My spouse is the only thing really holding me back. She's Korean (I lived in South Korea for years), and is pretty hostile to China. What do you think? Should I stay here, or should I go? I know it's not necessarily your job to advise me on my family life but I'm still curious about your opinion.