this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2025
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It's unlikely to increase monthly, and it'll likely plateau after a couple months after Trump has his fun. Since the economy is reasonably healthy (lowish unemployment, inflation under control, etc), the jobs report isn't going be all that pivotal unless inflation picks back up again or consumer spending drops, and then it's only interesting as a trend.
It turns out, when you flood the market with competent workers and your economy is otherwise healthy, they tend to get snapped up. The same is true for any resource, if something useful all of a sudden gets more plentiful, it will be used.
I'm not saying this won't have an impact, I'm saying the jobs report isn't where to look for problems since it's usually a lagging indicator of larger problems. Recessions aren't caused by governments cutting jobs, unless it's a socialist country or something where the government is the main employer or something.
I'm far more worried about tariffs in the short term than I am about government jobs getting slashed. That's concerning over the long term as research doesn't get done and whatnot, but that's a future us problem.
OMG... The economy ISN'T reasonably healthy...
Inflation is headed back up.
Houselessness in the US hit records highs, and still climbing.
Real income is still flat from 1980.
That... Not at all how it works. It ignores all sorts of things, like labor mobility. Remember the Great Depression? Loads of people, and loads of jobs out there... Labor was frozen, and immobile.
Right now, we have low unemployment, because people are holding 2 and 3 jobs just to meet basic needs... And are still falling behind.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464
The economy is only doing "reasonably well" for oligarchs.
Additionally, slashing federal spending does... Reduce the GDP. Every federal dollar spent usually leads to 3-7 USD once it gets to the streets.
Source? Jan inflation was 3.0% annualized, slightly up from 2.9% in December. We hit a low of 2.4% back in Sep, but it's been pretty steady around 2.5-3% over the past year. The fed started cutting rates late last year, and now they're pausing. There's always some uncertainty around election season, and this one was especially spicy, so that's honestly a good call.
Yes, that's certainly concerning. But that doesn't really indicate issues in the broader economy, it indicates issues in the low-end of housing affordability. That's certainly a problem and should be addressed, but it's not indicative IMO of a recession looming, unless we get a round of defaults or something like we had in 2007/2008.
Prices are high because new construction was severely limited during COVID, and it does seem to be getting better, just slower than most would like.
That's just not true.
Those were very different times. The Great Depression seems to have been caused by:
If Hoover just didn't create tariffs to try to address the recession, the Great Depression likely never would've happened. But no, we chased reduced demand with higher prices, further pushing demand down. Instead, we should have increased the money supply, encouraging businesses to expand instead of consumption to contract.
I am concerned about Trump's tariffs for much the same reason that tariffs were problematic in the 1920s, but we're not in a deflationary environment, on the flipside, inflation seems to be largely under control. Ideally, if we do tariffs, we should wait until inflation is too low and the fed wants to drop rates, because that means the market is a bit overheated and tariffs could help cool it a bit.
If we go back to the Great Depression, just creating jobs didn't fix the economy, my understanding is that gold inflows (we were still on the gold standard) largely did, because it increased money supply, encouraging more investment. The rampant deflation started ending in 1933 (same link as above), which is when the economy started showing signs of recovery.
That's the same general idea for the recovery in the 2008 recession, we slashed fed rates, which increased the money supply and encouraged investment.
That really depends on what it's spent on.
WW2 fixed the Great Depression...
That's... not really true, though it is a popular take. After WW2, there were concerns that we'd go right back into recession/depression, because the fundamentals of the economy didn't really change. The main thing that seemed to fix that was slashing taxes to encourage more private sector investment, which helped take advantage of dominating trade while the rest of the world was rebuilding.
Pretty sure all of Europe needing to be rebuilt, and the US having the only working industrial sector had a huge thing to with it...
Not slashing taxes... taxes were at their highest in the 60s.
There were a ton of policies enacted leading up to and during WW2 that restricted free enterprise, and I'm using "tax rates" as sort of a catch all here. This is an interesting article about it:
How did that sudden shift happen?
And in the conclusion:
Basically, the government stopped directing the economy (i.e. taking taxes and spending as it saw fit) and allowed the market to dictate how money would flow. The result was a (relatively) smooth transition to a peacetime economy, which was capable of taking advantage of ravaged economies elsewhere in the world.
That's irrelevant. What matters is the relative change and the signal that sends to the market. Top tax rates were 94%, and dropped substantially (to around 86%-ish top marginal rate, corporate taxes also cut) after the war. But then we had the Korean war, and taxes increased again. But again, it's the signal that matters here, not the absolute numbers.
There are a ton of other factors. My general thrust is that there was a huge drop in government spending and therefore a lower need for revenue, and that opened up that money to be used for other purposes.
Yeah, I'm not going to bother with a source from a capitalist... Sorry. I'll just go with the facts: The US was pretty much the only ones who could rebuild Europe... Eveyrone else had their entire industries flattened.
It wasn't about cutting taxes. It was about "Unleashing the market"... Those are oligarch talking points, to try and convince us to let them be Robber Barons again.
Europe could also rebuild Europe, it would just take a lot longer. The US spent a ton of money rebuilding both Europe and Japan, and being able to do that while also transitioning back to a peacetime economy really is something IMO. Not to mention getting embroiled in the Korean war just a few short years later, while still rebuilding after the war.
I don't really like Truman, but I think he did a decent job after the war.