this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Summary

Germany warns that Russia is rearming faster than expected, replacing war losses and stockpiling tanks, missiles, and drones.

Putin has redirected Russia’s economy to fuel its military, aided by supplies from Iran and North Korea.

While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.

On the Ukraine front, Russian forces are advancing in south Donetsk, nearing strategic town Pokrovsk, a key supply hub and coal mining center.

Analysts suggest Putin aims to seize land before potential peace talks.

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[–] Saleh@feddit.org 4 points 9 hours ago

These arent nested. Any of these can happen independently and any one of them happening makes some others more likely to happen too.

Each of them adds to shifting the balance of power and noone knows where the breaking point is.

Of course there is also a few IFs going the other way around, or were we just know it will have an impact but not which way

If the Russian people get fed up with the economy...

If Putin dies...

If Trump dies...

If Xi dies...

If there is an escalation in South East Asia...

If there is a further escalation in West Asia...

If there is a major climate event in Russia/Eastern Europe/Western Europe/North America...