this post was submitted on 02 Jan 2025
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If 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you'll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them.
If you pick one to believe in you'll be about 90% correct on average.
If you pick 10 you'll be about 50% correct.
I don't get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
Looks like Big Math got to you
If you pick one you're 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You're 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.