this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2023
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Hard drives are not that unreliable, well, so long as you pick the right model.
BackBlaze's statistics are here: https://www.backblaze.com/blog/backblaze-drive-stats-for-q2-2023/ - they run tens of thousands of inexpensive drives to run their cloud backup service. Some HDDs are much better than others.
That document also links to their SSD statistics (they don't have that many SSDs yet, so the stats aren't as good) but while SSDs tend to have lower failure rates, there are some models of SSD that have higher failure rates than HDDs. For example, one Seagate SSD they use has an AFR (annualised failure rate) of just under 2%, but one Toshiba HDD they use has an AFR of only 0.31%. (Another thing to be aware of is that Backblaze's drives will all be in air conditioned data centres, not in the random temperature/humidity spreads of a PC in someone's home).
If you look at the stats as a whole generally SSDs have half the failure rate across the board to HDDs, but it varies a lot by make and model. So be careful on which you pick, and take backups :-) For my money, all my PCs (desktop and laptops) are pure SSD setups. My server still uses spinning disks, mainly because it's older server class hardware with a SAS array.
By the time enough longevity data has been collected to be really useful, obsolescence is becoming a factor. And even if the same model number is still being sold, the hardware inside may have changed and all of the data may not be directly relevant.
Sticking with a reputable product line and assuming that past performance is relevant doesn't always help, either... I remember the ~~Deskstar~~ Deathstar drives fiasco, and got bit hard by it.
But it does help give an idea of who's making the most reliable drives (both SSD and hard disk). No, this isn't a guarantee, but it's still useful information especially when it's not just a friend-of-a-friend anecdote but gained over tens of thousands of drives.