chapotraphouse

[Once] results start coming in on Election night, where’s the first place you’re looking for an indicator of over/underperformance? Bellwethers, Philly suburb counties, etc.?

The first place I’ll look will not be in a swing state. It’ll be in Indiana, where polls start closing at 6:30 EST. Obviously, it’s not a competitive state, but there are some counties inside it that could offer clues for the swing states later. Hamilton County, right outside Indianapolis, is full of fast-growing suburbs with a large number of voters with four-year degrees – this is the exact kind of place nationally that’s been moving Democratic the most in the Trump era. Hamilton was won in 2012 by Mitt Romney by 34 points, but by 2020 Trump only carried it by 7. How much bluer is it getting in ‘24? This will be relevant for later, similar suburban areas – like Chester in PA, Union in NC and Ozaukee in WI.