this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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In a ranked choice system or other better voting system, yes.
In the current system, voting for anyone but the least bad choice among the two that stand a chance is almost like giving your vote to the one that has the best chances, regardless of your preferences.
Look up the spoiler effect in elections.
Or, CGP Grey has an excellent explanation of the whole thing.
https://www.cgpgrey.com/politics-in-the-animal-kingdom
Your logic works assuming the world lasts 4 years.