this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
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I might be wrong, but to me junior dev are just senior dev in the making, employers know that. The junior dev will continue to exist as long as employers need senior devs.
Now maybe Devs will completely disappear in the near (or far) future, but I don't think you can remove one if you still need the other.
You severely underestimate current corporations and their short sightedness.
There's always start ups, their role in the ecosystem is to continuously hire new grads that have been jobless for months at a pittance. Once these new grads get bigger than their ponds they swim upstream to the carnage consultancies, that will gradually allocate their "newly nominated senior developers ' to increasingly bigger and bigger companies while syphoning their shining earnings. Once they are again bigger than THATv ponds and fulfill contractual exclusiveness noon compete deals, these developers migrate to their well known corporations, where they mature for 30 years with a stagnated salaries but augmented areas in responsibilities and diminished efforts until they die - aham - retire.
I'm not convinced the employers know that. At least not the ones that ultimately control hiring. Granted, I'm not CS, I'm in the Mechanical Engineering world and it seems like a similar issue has existed (for possibly different reasons) for the last decade or so. That goes double for the skilled trades that our work heavily relies on. Companies don't want to spend the time and money developing new talent, they just want to find already developed talent.
They may throw some money and lip service at some school or community programs, but they don't really take on the responsibility of insuring a sustainable ecosystem of people in the industry. Like a lot of issues it's the Prisoner's Dilemma. I'm not sure how it is in other parts of the world, butat least in the US, with some rare exceptions, I don't see people and companies changing from being selfish to trying to maximize the benefit for all without changes in policy, and the likelihood of that is well........
Unless AI can read the minds of product owners, then developers aren't going anywhere.
The cryptic dribble that passes for user stories in many organisations is shocking.