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This is exactly how I used to see things when I grew up in a conservative echo chamber.
And now that I recognize a person's right to choose and tend to think capital punishment should probably* not be legal, I'll add that it's not that my underlying beliefs changed, just how I now understand things. Some people do deserve capital punishment. And innocent people should be protected. But personhood doesn't start at conception, a person conceiving has a right to decide what happens to their body, and the state can never be trusted to administer capital punishment.
*I say "probably" because I also think it might be necessary to allow it in extreme cases. My reasoning is that if people don't believe the justice system will adequately punish, they have incentive and no ultimate detergent for taking justice into their own hands.
But should we even punish?
I don't mean to troll, so let me explain. Why do we punish? I think it's two fold, we punish to deter crimes and we punish to exact revenge. But the fear of punishment doesn't deter crime https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterrence and that leaves revenge as the only both intended and actual outcome of punishment.
Is the current costs of running a complicated criminal justice system really worth it, if all we get from it is revenge? Does revenge make society better? I don't think so.
I'm not advocating for anarchy either. There should be consequences for criminals. I'm just not sure what the consequences should be, but punishment is ineffective. I get that we have personal responsibility, and free will. And I'm not trying to excuse criminals, I'm just saying that punishment doesn't work.
One aspect of punishment is retribution for the victims when there is nothing else and another is to keep people that are harmful away in order to keep other people safe.
Here in Sweden we have a current massive problem with organized crime that are now systematically abusing our criminal justice system that is built on humanitarian ideals for rehab and protecting suspects and criminals rights to the absurd. So yes, in those cases I think punishment will do. Cynically abusing protection measures of society deserves punishment. It may not change those individuals for the life they have chosen for themselves but it will keep them out of making even more damage to society and violent crime against individuals and I honestly see no problem in harsh consequences for their own decisions.
I'm all about scientific research, especially when it goes against the grain, but the idea of getting caught being a bigger deterrent than the punishment is just, weird?
If there is no punishment, why would you be afraid to be caught?
I think the idea is that the thing that stops you in the moment is "I likely won't get away with it" more than "if they catch me there'll be hell to pay ... but only if".
I mean you're (as in the informal general usage of "you", not as the second person pronoun) not going to pull out your phone while driving, if you're next to a cop. But if there's no one around that even looks like an undercover traffic cop?
Human brains are bad at thinking in long term consequences, but immediate consequences? Those we understand.
I see what you're saying and understand that criminals have poor judgment, especially long term.
I still think that there is a natural idea of consequences, even if latent. If no consequences, the only thing about getting caught is having to do whatever thing you're doing again, ie losing time.
Lots of people never reach more advanced stages of moral reasoning. They don't do bad things to avoid being punished, or maybe because they have a simple understanding of "it's against the rules"
The current justice and prison system is abhorrent, but something needs to happen if someone tries to murder someone else. Most people are alright but there are a lot of anti social people out there, too. And a lot of people who would be alright if they were in more stable circumstances
It doesn't work as a deterrent though. In states that have the death penalty people still do bad things.