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Well obviously. But I didn't feel like writing for hours. Any geopolitical analysis of this scale that is only two paragraphs is going to be simplified.
Whether it's overly simple, I don't think so. I think I captured the gist of how things seem to be going. Of course I can't know the future, there are twists and turns and happenings no one expects.
But I do know this. Europe is bound to the US by the bonds of white supremacy and settler-colonialist legacy and the threads of neo-colonialist interest they still have. Their interests are one in certain ways and that makes it exceptionally hard for them to truly gain independence from the force that's been occupying them (literally) and bailed out their capitalists at the end of WW2. Like a bunch of evil Captain Planet planeteers through their powers and colonial legacy, tricks, and support combined the US became capitalism's consolidated champion as well as the global defender of the white supremacist world order.
Let's not forget the NSA was spying on Germany's prime minister among many others. It's not just that they have troops in these countries, it's that hey have dirt, leverage, ways of pushing people into or out of power when it comes down to it if they really need to make a change. They haven't used these for decades because they're unseemly and don't fit with their new image so it's a problem if they're caught and because the EU is close enough in interests to them that it's never been a problem. Gladio is a reminder of the tip of the iceberg of how far they'd go. Much as Google keeps Mozilla funded and alive to stave off challenges of monopoly the US allowed Europe some independence to lend legitimacy to their claims of different opinions and the idea that the EU and western Europe and most of NATO aren't just a bunch of vassals for the US.
As Parenti once quipped, if you never go beyond where you're supposed to go you never notice the tug of the leash, it's only when you stray that you feel that and realize the limits imposed on you.
The Nordstream bombings was the tugging of the leash and we saw Europe very obediently heel and they've with a whimper accepted the US narrative lie about it being Ukraine that did it.