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Former B.C. Liberal minister says he may vote NDP, as Eby woos disaffected centrists
(www.castanetkamloops.net)
this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2024
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https://338canada.com/bc/
I have some good news, specifically the projections for odds to win most seats and odds to win a majority.
That was what, 15% between the NDP and Cons a month or two ago? The lead is shrinking quickly.
You know what is fun?
How you immediately gave away the fact you are here in bad faith pushing polls to stoke fear in a Conservative win.
You know how I know this?
You posted this: https://338canada.com/bc/polls.htm
Which is dated the same as the link I gave you (https://338canada.com/bc/) because it is a part of the same data package. The difference is I didn't cherry pick.
But according to you, that is simply too far back to matter. Which is weird, because again, you provided the cherry picked data. I simply provided the rest of what you left out.
What? The BC Cons went from so far behind the BC NDP/United, whatever they're called, to a few percentage points behind the NDP.
Scroll down on your link to the British Columbia | Popular vote projection.
On April 14th, 2023, the Cons were polling at 5%. A year and four months later, on August 14th, they're polling at 38%. Look at that insane upward curve.
I don't need to scroll down as the popular vote is at the top of my link. You would know that, and the fact that my link is just a better version of yours, if you actually were here in good faith and followed the link.
The NDP, using the source you provided, have a 78% chance of winning a majority government even with the popular vote being as close as it is. The popular vote is the only metric the BCCons look good in, which is why it is the only metric people like you are using.
It is also important to point out that the popular vote is not based on a poll, which is explicitly stated, and even less meaningful than it would be otherwise:
"This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here."
Take care now, bye bye then.
And the support of the Cons is trending up. I feel like you missed that part.