this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2024
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They've had delays, manufacturing problems, design problems, strained relationships with OEMs, political infighting, brain drain, cancelled projects, huge security vulnerabilities, less interest in their (opened up to non-intel customers) foundry than expected, and their nodes – despite not actually being far behind TSMC and in some areas better – are vastly more expensive.
This is all on top of the fact that Intel is structured in a way that they cannot make money unless they are a monopoly. And now they're no longer a monopoly.
welp, good riddance to bad rubbish.
did they get antitrusted?
No, AMD just had an absolutely staggering recovery.
Before AMD recovered, high-performance CPU manufacturers that fell behind had a 100% track record of fading into complete obscurity or going bankrupt.
AMD sold everything they had, including their fabs, they put their graphics division into what was effectively life support by only making a very cheap to manufacture Polaris chip (RX 480/580 cards and their derivatives) and a (unsuccessful) vega chip for several years, they pleaded with Microsoft and Sony to be used in their consoles for only the most pathetic margins that Intel and Nvidia would scoff at, and they got to work on Zen, putting everything into it.
If Zen failed, AMD would've went bankrupt, without question. Everyone expected bankruptcy from AMD. Their stock price went to under $2. Certainly nobody expected Zen to be as good as it was. They went from multiple generations behind Intel, to ahead in practically everything but gaming (which would take a couple more years) overnight.
Then, a moment of excellent luck for AMD, and poor luck for Intel, Spectre and Meltdown (two devastating vulnerabilities for Intel CPUs), accelerated the enterprise sector's switch to AMD.
thanks for the write-up.
i knew something had happened there but only read half headlines.
Thats an amazing story and gokd to know, thanks for clarifying and condensing it for me.
have a good one!
Well, that's the thing. They are kind of "too big to fail" and Intel is too important for the US to let it fail or even get behind the curve.
There's probably more government money headed their way. Just like there is more foreign government money headed to their competitors in other countries. It might become more of a subsidy battle between governments than a money-making competition between companies.
the curve is firmly set by Taiwan, Intel is playing catch up at best.
Intel is just the right size to fail.
I don't think that's necessarily true.
"bet", "next", "will", "if", "plan", "should".
that's a lot of faith to place in the unproven optimistically hypothetical next steps of a company way behind the firmly established innovation, dominance and reliability of TSMC semi fab.
Sure, but it's also hard to bid against a company that we all know the US government is not going to let fail.
no bidding, it's history.
Intel has been that big for decades and has been left in the dust by TSMC for decades.
the US has repeatedly invested in "too big to fail" companies and has been rewarded with recessions, housing crises, national credit demotion, crippling healthcare costs, and rampant inflation.
if it's too big to fail, it's too big to exist.