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It's because the Republicans have a structural advantage due to the electoral college. So Democrats need a larger margin in the popular vote to win enough seats, whereas Republicans can win even without winning the popular vote (as they did in 2016).
The Republicans have an additional structural advantage this year, as they are perpetrating massive acts of sabotage against the election system itself by inserting election deniers into positions of control over it. Between that, their control of the House, and control of SCOTUS, anything short of a Harris landslide could give them an opening to sow enough confusion and doubt to steal the presidency.
A Harris landslide victory will not stop what’s about to be attempted. I know we’re just a few months away from this but I need people to be ready for what they’re about to see.
Things will start before the election with disinformation but on the actual day of election, it will be worse than last time. People will show up armed to polling places, possibly harass voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these locations are shut down due to attacks. It will be something the US hasn’t seen before probably. If you don’t believe me, last time all this stuff happened they were unprepared. This time they aren’t.
Then shortly after the votes are cast on the day of and the following day, these actions will continue as people attack polling stations, ballot counters, and frenzy around the numbers if Trump loses. Legal battles will begin almost immediately in an attempt to slow things down.
It’s a long road to January from there. And expect it to be equally as awful. But ultimately, they will absolutely try to attack our system of confirmation. Fake electors will be lined up, legal challenges mounted, so many tactics will be deployed. You think project 2025 is bad? That’s what they’ll publish folks, imagine what they won’t. The election after an attempted insurrection is the most important one you’ll ever vote in and isn’t a time to relax.
Exactly! The alarm isn't being raised about this anywhere near as loudly as it needs to be. I don't know if it's because the Republicans successfully poisoned the well on talking about election fraud or if the neoliberals are still in denial, but we're sleepwalking ~~into another~~ through an ongoing coup attempt and appear to be doing basically fuck-all about it!
Actually, electoral wise I have Harris at 278, Trump 260. And that is giving Trump PA, NV, and GA. IMO Harris will take at least two of those states. The blue wall.
You must be dropping NC into blue then? That's not at all a likelihood right now. Possible, yes, but very hopeful. If NC goes red in your calculation, Trump wins with 276 to Harris' 262.
I'm in agreement on WI. AZ and MI are still a toss-up.
North Carolina leans blue.
In the last fifty years, North Carolina has voted red in every presidential election besides 2008 and 1976.
https://www.270towin.com/states/North_Carolina
The demo in states change all the time. As I understand it, North Carolinas demo has changed over the years. In 2020, Biden lost by a little over 1 percentage point. Will this year reverse the trend? We shall see.
Just like Nebraska's 2nd District.
Biden won that one.
https://fedia.io/m/politics@lemmy.world/t/1103063/-/comment/6877839
The research triangle has brought in a lot of folks from bluer parts of the country.
One point is commanding but four points are narrow?
That’s the joke. The New York Times are a bunch of chodes trying to sell you the narrative that Dems are unpopular.
It also speaks to the manipulation by the media. But, when Obama says that it will be close, it's more than just a motivator. Don't trust general polls. Look at each state poll.