this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2024
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The 575k number is dead and wounded though, many of those will heal fine, so the number is too high for deaths.
But if you include everyone who got the fuck out before conscription hits them, the number should probably be doubled. At least.
Yep. no doubt. Imposssible to quantify, but reports at the time were at least a million men fled to Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc.
I make no claim that the 575k number is dead. Even UA says that's their estimate of dead and wounded. And to be extremely generous, let's say 30-40% of those wounded are probably so disabled, amputees or worse, that not only can they not fight anymore, but they can't work jobs at their full pre-invasion potential. That would still be hundreds of thousands of lost labor force participants in a country who relies massively on heavy industry and resource extraction manned by able bodied, if often drunk, raw manpower. They won't be shifting war amputees to service sectors desk jobs and call centers.
These newly disabled veterans will become burdens on a state that probably won't honor the support agreements to their full extent, making them worse than simply unproductive - it will make them bitter living testaments to the stupidity of this war and it's broken promises. In the cold caclulus of Russian brutality - these people are better off dead telling no tales and drawing no pension than they would be alive. Russia's interal ethnic cleansing and useless mouth disposal of their own people sometimes gets lost in the ocean of wickedness that this entire war has been.
I've seen a paper saying that in Afghanistan amputee were 10% or wounded.
It's hard to tell in Ukraine. The casualty rate for Russian is probably extremely high in the areas where they send meat waves one after the others. And for people to be disabled, they need to survive first.
But it's very hard to make a stat over the whole war. I wouldn't be surprised if 30% were dead and 20% disabled.
For after the war you need to add the trauma on top though. Even the able survivors will be psychologically scarred for life.
No biggie, only the intelectuals and the educated left. \s
Much like soldiers did after WWI, right?
The reality is that many people have lost limbs, eyes, hearing, and so on. That means that many of these people are not going to end up being productive workers once they're released from service; they're going to be less-capable than their abled-bodied counterparts, and in a functional country, would end up being a drain on the coffers due to disability pensions (I strongly doubt that Russia is going to give the wounded conscripts any kind of disability payments).
Any way you slice it, Russia is destroying their own future. This kind of war, in a time where people aren't having children even at replacement level, simply isn't sustainable.