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The most boring one: most species off themselves before they fully get off their starting planet. We will go the same way. Take your pick from climate change, war, pandemic, ... or even a combination of several!
I agree. The threshold for becoming the "dominant species" of a planet is so low that the species still has its primal wiring for tribalism, competitiveness, etc. by the time it can build rockets. We humans should've had more time in the evolutionary oven to become more empathetic and cooperative for longer-term survival. Instead we have people willing (and able) to literally burn the world down to become richer or more powerful. And we have most of society cheering them on.
We've been on the verge of destroying ourselves for decades now, and humans have just barely started doing space stuff (a blink compared to the life of the universe). How in the world can anyone expect us to get to Dyson sphere levels of progress with how fragile our existence is?
Unfortunately, I think this is the most likely scenario. Going from our modern technology levels, which are more than capable of destroying the world, to Dyson spheres is a huge leap that will take who knows how long (decades? centuries? millennia?).
Before that happens, we have to live together on a planet without blowing ourselves up or making the planet uninhabitable. As technology continues to advance, walking that knife edge of survival seems more and more difficult. The pessimist inside of me says that no civilization has been able to accomplish it.
I disagree with your last point. I think we'll be at Dyson sphere levels in a thousand years, easily. Maybe two thousand if we an hero ourselves.