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Dutchie here.
It's pretty clear Rutte deliberately caused the collapse by suddenly demanding a new type of asylum policy where a limited number of children could join their parent who found refuge in The Netherlands.
Rutte knew perfectly well at least one of the coalition parties would never accept that and the other two were very skeptical about it. Ultimately, Rutte forced them to agree or disagree by stating the ministerial council would vote about it (and that is very uncommon for a coalition that works on the basis of trust). Beside that, there are way more important issues at hand now, like the nitrogen and housing crisis. And of course climate change. But no, Rutte (provably by incentive of his electorate) suddenly made this a major issue. Mind you: the number of people asking for asylum in The Netherlands this year is around 20.000 up until now and that's a normal number. No crowds of people seeking asylum to be seen.
So what is this all about? Rutte's party (the VVD) probably concluded this is the right time to have new elections in order to try and have the VVD become the largest party. Because the largest party usually gets to say who becomes prime minister. And hey, what a surprise, that's likely Rutte (again).
It's a setup and everybody and his mother knows it. Rutte is trying to create a new coalition where he can become prime minister again. And he set this up in such a way that migration suddenly is a major issue, where in fact it's other topics that are much more important.
But it's not at all sure the VVD will win IMO. The new farmer's party BBB won the provincial elections by a landslide and I wouldn't be surprised they will become the largest party. Not that that's a good outcome IMO, because the BBB often tries to downplay the nitrogen crisis. But my estimate is that most people will decide that the BBB is better than yet another round of Rutte.
Thanks for the context! Im a bit out of the loop, what is this nitrogen crisis you mentioned?
I had the same question, and it led to an interesting Google search. Turns out it's been going on a few years now, and even has a wiki entry. A combination of farm runoff and vehicle pollution is screwing up the soil, water, and air. Feels so weird I hadn't even heard of this.
Thanks! 🙏