this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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while I agree in principle.... my issue is that the russia hasn't been a conventional military threat in ages. they wanted us to think they were- and we maybe believed them.
The real issue isn't the conventional weapons-those are dangerous to Ukraine, and any other they choose to invade (Which is unlikely... they have their hands full with Ukraine...) The real issue is the nukes that may or may not be in decent repair. I would expect at least a few are capable of being detonated- maybe not loaded onto a ballistic missile, but you can always truck in a nuke and set it off that way.
The closer they get to ceasing to exist... the more likely those nukes come out to play. because Putin et al are fucking cowards.
I still don't believe theres much chance the current Russian administration would use Nukes. Even if Putin got desperate enough to give the order, few others would commit to a suicide pack for their entire nation short of actually being invaded. Much easier to just replace the top man in such a dire situation.
My worry for a weakening Russia is if it splinters and local warlords get their hands on Nuclear weapons. Nobody benefits if they end up on black markets.
I'm curious at what point China will get involved. I don't think they would want to live next to an unstable mess and it might be bad for business
They'll never admit it, but you know China has to be eyeing Outer Manchuria. The Chinese have been developing and populating their side of the border and the Russians have done little outside of Vladivostok.
If the Russian state collapses, they have to make a play for it, right?