Are Election Polls Accurate Indicators or Poor Predictors? (dividedwefall.org)

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 6 points 5 hours ago

The number one problem with polling is who they survey.

Most polls will tell you "We surveyed xxx number of likely voters..."

(Record scratch)

Wait a second... How are you defining "likely"?

That wiggle room gives pollsters the ability to cherry pick their audience and you often have to dig into how they define "likely."

Registered to vote? High enthusiasm? Voted in the past two elections?

What is likely for one poll may not be likely for other polls.

That's one of the reasons polling was off in 2016. "Voted in the last 2 elections", well, Trump drew out people who hadn't voted. Because they hadn't voted they weren't counted as "likely."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/elections/registered-voters-vs-likely-voters.html

[-] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 7 points 4 hours ago

That's why I think the polls are off now. The number of 18-30 year olds registrations is off the charts in previous years and they are not counted as likely voters.

Young women are going to be key to this election I think. They are pissed off and are chomping at the bit to vote.

[-] MediaBiasFactChecker@lemmy.world -1 points 5 hours ago

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this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2024

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