I mean Ukraine "victory" plan is, depending on version, either: a) The same as usual, that is unconditional surrender of Russia, which obviously won't happen; b) Ostensibly the same but aimed at excusing themselves before the west from starting the actual peace negotiations; c) Manufacturing conditions for open NATO intervention

None of those is something that would impress US, but they will likely go with a) because collapse right now would be a political bomb and after elections it would be something entirely different regardless of who wins (like Afghanistan proven, nobody in US even remember that rout now).

Does whether or not Ukraine can win affect the calculus for the Biden admin in any way? Politicians on both sides have described the war as a way of killing Russians without spending a single drop of American blood, and every bomb sent justifies/enables more campaign donations.

The only thing that would be problematic for them would be a quick victory or loss.

I am blocked by WSJ for using an adblocker, do you have an archive link?