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Russian Troop Losses Are Likely Near an All-Time High
(www.kyivpost.com)
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People and the media keep disparaging Russian tactics in places like Avdiivka and Bakhmut. But it has worked for them in the past, and I'm starting to think Avdiivka might get surrounded. Avdiivka is described as being 'like a fortress' which is exactly what they said about Bakhmut a year ago, and that fell to the same strategy. They'll just keep throwing more and more men into the meat grinder for as long as it takes, chipping away at Ukraine's defences every day, and eventually after a few months potentially take the town.
It reminds me of how Napoleon used to brag about how he could reliably recruit 15,000 men a week, which gave him confidence that he could keep waging war because France could sustain the losses. I wonder if something similar is being played out in Putin's calculations. Just keep recruiting and throwing away lives, and eventually you'll eek out a victory. It's fucking horrifying. Everyone expects Russia to run out of men and equipment at some point, but they never do. They seem to have an infinite supply of BMPs, men, and Kalashnikovs.
My uneducated guess is that Russia doesn't even really want to "win" the war at this point (i.e. conquer all or parts of Ukraine, force them to surrender or install a puppet government, then govern it).
I think they'd be happy with a stalemate that turns into a low scale conflict with manageable cost to them, long term.
That way, Ukraine can't join EU or NATO, but Russia also doesn't have to deal with managing the peace and dealing with insurrectionists.
The Western public will eventually lose interest (if not next year, then in 10 years), and other conflicts, possibly stoked by Russia, will take over the limelight.
I hate how plausible this sounds